1. Timeline
We currently don't know the exact time of the murder trials, but we have the following dates:
- Asha's magic exam date: she took this around the 35th day of the 12th month of N11 (see date on Saha On's letter). So, close to N12, and she was denied access to the human search system soon after. We know that she was active for about a year after this, before disappearing for 3 years. So, disappearance around the start of N13.
- The dates Saha On entered into the human search system: he first entered the beginning of N11, then N13. Between N11 and N13, the number of searches went down from 35 to 19, so 16 deaths.
Scenario 1:
- Both the 29 murders and the trial occurred before N11. Saha On later denied Asha access to the human search system because of her record.
- In fact, Asha had killed all the targets she could find on her own, and needed the human search system to find the remaining targets. Lacking access, she enlisted the help of another AA magician around the start of N12, and killed off more targets for the year after that. Thus, Saha On was able to deduce that she had gained the aid of an AA magician since then.
I used to think that this was what happened, but I've since realized that there are other possibilities.
Scenario 2.1 and 2.2:
- The murders started earlier and lasted until N13, and the trials were held near N13 (right before she disappeared).
- OR the murders all occurred between N12 and N13.
- In both cases, Asha disappeared for 3 years right after the trials
In fact, she could have taken the exams at Rindhallow instead of Eloth for the following reasons:
- She murdered all the targets she could find around Eloth already (she may have stayed long enough to find targets on her own, since she was studying there), and moved on to Rindhallow. She needed a magic license, so she made a stop to take the exams. It'd make sense for her to not have killed many victims outside of Eloth by then, since she was studying (and I doubt she'd be liked by her teachers as much if she was skipping class)
- She didn't want to take the exams at Eloth for whatever reason. Maybe she wanted to hide her true Divine Affinity. Maybe she knew that she'd not be allowed to take the barrier exams there, or that Saha would deny her the AA rank, and tried her luck at Rindhallow. Maybe she was just avoiding all the annoying people hoping to take the exams with her.
- -Maybe- she was meeting up with an accomplice, in case she couldn't access the human search system herself. We later see Laila talking to Lorraine, so Lorraine was in Rindhallow... Hmm.
2. Murder counts and location
In Saha's investigation, the number of dots decreased from 35 to 19 between N11 and N13, so... 16 deaths. That's less than Asha's 35 murder records, and less than the 21 Known to be using an alias. Either Asha started earlier than N11 and those cases were then found, or she had to kill a few extras (guardians and such), or she got a few targets wrong. She missed some targets in some locations, after all, so it wasn't perfect for her.
I've highlighted in red the targets that seem to have died in-between.
Of the 16 dead, 12 seemed to occur around Eloth, Rindhallow and Atera (there could be an extra one in Eloth, but it's unclear). This means only 4 more targets could have been killed in Mistyshore, Kalibloom or Aeroplateau combined (though she could have killed more later on). Some victims could have moved around, but all of Saha's searches probably used the same date, so the targets should all be in the same location (at home or at work, depending on time zone). Since none of the targets were properly registered with cities, they were probably all hiding in a same location and weren't free to run around.
Compare this to what the Sura have been doing, by the way:
- Ch. 6: a village was destroyed near Kalibloom, then one near Rindhallow, finally settlements near Eloth (4 were targeted, but maybe they didn't know which one was the exact one, it doesn't necessarily mean there were 4 targets)
- Ch. 29: Gandharva notes that he's been working hard, and only Atera, Eloth and Rindhallow are left.
A few things to note:
- If Asha really couldn't target victims within cities after N13, then there's the question of the targets in Mistyshore (1), Kalibloom (2) and Aeroplateau (1). Those could have been the 4 victims not accounted for besides those in Atera, Eloth and Rindhallow, but I find it hard to believe that she just killed the one target within cities and ignored the other ones nearby.
- Strangely enough, Gandharva and Sagara didn't mention Kalibloom, Mistyshore or Aeroplateau. Sagara decided to attack Kalibloom, but she was targeting God Kubera's items. So either those 4 people died some other time, or they moved and were killed elsewhere, or they weren't targeted in the first place, or the Sura just didn't bother to name them (this is also possible, like how we later learned that there were more causes to Gandharva's weakening, or to his unstable state).
- Asha picking up Leez: did she Just kill the other remaining target outside Atera?
- I counted all 35 dots in Saha's first search, so there are no 'overlapping dots'. Thus, Leez' friend Kaz is probably not an extra dot.
- Agni noted to Brilith in ch. 84 that 5 people in Atera are called Agni.
3. Accomplices
There are 3 possibilities for AAs: Claude, Lorraine and Laila. Of these:
- Claude only seems to have met Asha recently. Asha hates his guts so... I'm more inclined to suspect that he later investigated her, and started cleaning up her trail once he realized what she was up to.
- Laila seems to actually responsibly spend her time defending her city in Rindhallow.
- That leaves Lorraine as the most likely suspect, especially since Riche also listed her among those to whom Saha shouldn't divulge information.
4. Motive
I've already theorized on the possible motive in my structure essay: Appendix B.12
http://vatoto.com/forums/topic/18622-essay-kuberas-massively-multi-layered-mysterydrama-structure/
Basically, it appears that there are multiple targets with the Power of the Name. Killing them causes an increase in power in the survivors. Asha planned to kill off a bunch, strengthen the survivor and use said survivor as pawn. She must have chosen Leez because she was the daughter of Rao Leez, whom she owes, and whom she Probably thought lived up to her father (boy did she get a nasty surprise).
5. More theories
Here are some theories (no certainty, just theories for now):
- Asha never went inside Mistyshore, thus why neither Rana nor Ran were able to meet her. She could have killed all the targets Outside it during her 3-years absence though.
- Ran may be the name holder in Mistyshore. He doesn't even realize this.
- Asha didn't necessarily insist on just one survivor, and may have decided to leave Ran among the survivors. She actually picked him up on purpose (and was mad because yet another one of her choices turned out to be a complete brat. Even Leez was surprised by how angry she was). Lutz knows Asha's choice, and supports Asha because of this. This is also why Asha makes sure Ran doesn't die.
- Lorraine, on the other hand, may be helping Asha because Asha will make the daughter of Rao Leez into one of the survivors. Lorraine is a fighter otaku, so she may have approved increasing the survival odds of Rao's daughter.
- Claude may have thought that Asha was just making as strong a hand as possible. He didn't realize that Asha intended for Leez to be among the survivors no matter what.
- The Power of the Name may affect different people in different ways. In Leez' case, the death of other name holders means a sudden increase in strength. However, in Ran's case, he experienced a surge in transcendental value (so the value measured by Riche's machine was actually his). He doesn't realize this at all, since Rana made him not use transcendentals.
- Perhaps Asha is the sole survivor of such purges on Carte, and in her case, she got a surge in Divine Affinity? (she also has increased strength, dunno about transcendental value). In this case, Ananta may have really been referring to Asha when he talked about the 'poor thing' who would 'lose again'. Even though Asha survived, she still failed... whatever her goal was on Carte.
In any case, it was really weird for Leez' mom to refer to Asha as a friend in Leez' dream. D:
Lessee... what did I miss...