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[MathiasonThe5th]

According the storyline so far Rei was an Iris Zero who got her brother's Iris when his corneas were transplanted into her.  Mizushima thinks that because Rei's Iris saw with an almost 100% certainty that he made Sasamori cry while Yuki told him that Sasamori wasn't lying when she said Mizushima wasn't why she was crying.  However, I think he's missing a few points.

• Rei's ability is Probabilities, not absolute certainties unless 100%. And she didn't say he caused Sasamori to cry 100%, but almost 100%.  So let's say she saw 99%, that means there's a 1% chance he wasn't responsible.
• Yuki's ability is being able to tell if someone is lying, and sometimes a little info from the lies.  However, just because someone is telling the truth doesn't mean their info is correct or true. For example, person A asks person B for the time. B lies and says it's 3pm when it's really 2pm.  Few minutes later Yuki asks A for the time and is told it's 3pm. She won't see a lie because A thinks it's 3pm, but since it's really 2pm A is telling the wrong time.
• Not all irises are absolute in what they reveal, especially if the information in what's being asked is incorrect. While Rei was correct in Mizushima finding her pendant, Sasamori was wrong because she was thinking of the wrong question which was "Is M best for finding the lost pendant?" If it really had been lost she would have been right, but since it was stolen she got the wrong answer from using wrong information.  Also, Hijiri's Iris sees black butterflies gather on anyone or anything that is going to die soon with the number increasing the closer to death they are.  However, Kuga was swarmed by butterflies twice when the Iris Hunter incident was coming to a close and Hijiri's crush, Tachibana, was swarmed with butterflies also. If Irises were absolute than both should have died due to Hijiri's Iris showing their approaching deaths. Since they didn't die, but had their butterflies dispelled when they were saved it means that his Iris isn't absolute but shows what will happen if something doesn't make a meaningful change to alter fate.

Therefore, Rei could be correct in Mizushima being the reason Sasamori was crying because he wouldn't help her out of a jam and Rei's 100% prediction was correct in that he'd find her pendant (find, not see, hold, or return.)  As for Yuki, even if Mizushima was the cause of Sasamori crying, Sasamori wouldn't be lying if she said it wasn't his fault because she believes it wasn't his fault.  Also, since Rei sees probabilities, even if the question is wrong, unless she sees a 0% or 100%, it means that there is x% chance of what she's thinking is correct, and 100%-x% chance that she's wrong.  So let's say she's looking at the Lost and Found box thinking "Where is my lost pendant? " and sees 80% chance her pendant is in there, it could be considered in the 20% that it isn't in there as the pendant isn't in there due to it being stolen and not lost.  So the 80% would be accurate if she had lost it rather than having it stolen.  So while Rei's and Yuki's Irises could be seen as contradicting each other, given some thought there is a way for both to be correct once you look into the details. While getting an Iris through an eye transplant might not work for other people, getting her brother's corneas or trauma or something else might have given her the ability due to being his twin or some combination triggering a latent talent into an active Iris.

 

On the other hand Mizushima might be correct in her Iris is being a fake.  Since most Irises tend to have 100% is or is not revelations the fact that hers is wrong sometimes could be an indication hers is fake.  Which means she's either lying about it and only acting or deluding herself into having an Iris. After all, her Iris could be considered off in that it didn't show 0% in the places her pendant wasn't and 100% in the place where it actually was. Of course that's assuming her brother had an Iris in the first place since he might have been lying and using probabilities to cover for the times he was wrong to avoid being exposed as an Iris Zero. After all, Mizushima pretended to have an Iris that could see other Irises by using whatever he could learn about a person's Iris to figure out what it is. Got away with it too until Yuki exposed his lies with her Iris.

Edited by MathiasonThe5th, 08 April 2015 - 01:37 PM.

[Fortis9001]

Agreed; I find the conclusion that Rei doesn't have a working iris odd based on what we know.

Even though we have very little information about how the whole probability thing is supposed to work, surely one miss at under 100% certainty doesn't invalidate it.

In my opinion Rei has an iris, even if it should turn out that that the displayed percentages aren't always accurate and true to whatever logic her iris is supposed to follow. The way she *knew* Mizushima is going to find her pendant? That doesn't really make sense if her iris doesn't provide at least some supernatural insight.

Considering his proposed solution, I'm assuming Mizushima is at least partially wrong in this case, and the happy resoultion for this arc will involve the group figuring it out.